Pricing for Sparse Data

While our ability to access and analyze large quantities of data is better than ever, many long-term products suffer from sparse data in critical risk areas, such as deep in-the-money lapse experience and long-term utilization rates for income guarantees. 

The presenters will explore industry-level annuity experience data for these types of situations and discuss quantitative approaches to addressing them in pricing and other applications.

At the conclusion of the session, attendees will be able to:

  • Identify critical risk areas where data can be sparse, even for products with long histories and high volumes
  • Understand technical approaches to quantifying these risks
  • Understand how to implement these approaches in pricing and other applications

Timothy S. Paris, FSA, MAAA (Moderator)

Tim is chief executive officer at Ruark Consulting LLC, which aims to be the platform and industry benchmark for principles-based insurance data analytics and risk management. Ruark’s industry experience studies of annuity policyholder behavior are fueled by data contributed each year from companies comprising over $1.1 trillion of current account values. These studies address complex and interrelated behaviors such as surrenders, partial withdrawals, annuitizations, and mortality, and are the foundation for our more advanced client services. These services range from assumption reviews to customized readily-implementable modeling with a quantified risk profile based on a combination of predictive analytics, credibility theory, and expert judgment, to full process management. More broadly, in the reinsurance space we have placed and continue to administer dozens of treaties totaling over $1.5 billion of reinsurance premium and $30 billion of account value, and also offer reinsurance audit and administration services. In the pension space, we performed the data gathering and analysis that led to the publication of the Pri-2012 mortality tables by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) in 2019. As an actuary and business leader, Tim is a frequent speaker at industry events in the US and abroad on the topics of longevity, policyholder behavior and modeling, product guarantees, and reinsurance. In 2018 he was the subject of an SOA video and article about actuaries embracing predictive analytics. His work and commentary have appeared in National Underwriter, Investment News, Life Annuity Specialist (Financial Times), American Banker, Annuity News, InsuranceNewsNet, Retirement Income Journal, Insurance Risk, and The Actuary and several other newsletters and podcasts of the SOA. He is also the author of the chapter “Modeling and Managing Policyholder Behavior Risk” in the book Non-traditional Life Insurance Products with Guarantees. Tim is a member of the Advisory Board of the Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research at the University of Connecticut, and a member of the Board of Directors of Retirement Income Group Limited (New Zealand). Within the SOA, he has served as an elected member of the Reinsurance Section Council, leader of the Assumption Development and Governance Subgroup of the Modeling Section, Contributing Editor for The Actuary magazine, Caribbean Editor for the International Section newsletter, and member of the Policyholder Behavior in the Tail working group of the Joint Risk Management Section. He has also served as a member of the Business Advisory Panel of Insurance Ireland, and a member of the Financial Reporting Committee of the Bermuda International Long Term Insurers and Reinsurers Association. Tim is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and a graduate of the University of Connecticut where he earned a BS in Mathematics with high honors.

Andy Samuel King, FSA, CERA

Andy King is a Consultant with the Actuarial Practice of Oliver Wyman and is based in Hartford. His areas of expertise include model building, model validation, and mergers & acquisitions for variable annuities and fixed indexed annuities. Prior to joining Oliver Wyman, Andy was an Actuarial Analyst at Lincoln Financial Group. Andy holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics – Actuarial Science from the University of Connecticut with honors.

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